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100 Days After BP Spill: Oil Disaster Good News for Crist

July 29, 2010 -- The oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has been a major political story in Florida. Perhaps the biggest impact has been on the U.S. Senate race, and so far, the winner has been Florida Governor Charlie Crist.

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Two years ago, Sarah Palin, then GOP Presidential Candidate John McCain’s running mate, made a campaign appearance in Clearwater and got an enthusiastic response to her “drill baby drill” refrain.

Not too long after that, Governor and future U.S. Senate candidate Charlie Crist acknowledged that offshore drilling remained controversial, but he said he had found a way to live with it.

“As long as it’s far enough, safe enough and clean enough, it's something we're willing to consider,” he said, “because I think it’s important that we're economically independent.”

But 100 days ago, the Deepwater Horizon rig exploded in the Gulf of Mexico.  The disaster didn’t obliterate public support for offshore drilling, but University of South Florida political scientist Susan MacManus says it undermined that support enough to make choices difficult for Florida politicians.

“The first inclination is to say that anyone who is pro-oil drilling is a loser,” she said, “but the polls say Floridians are somewhat mixed.  There's still a portion that have mixed feelings about it. Many remember the four-dollar gasoline prices of 2008.”

For Charlie Crist, the oil spill was a gift. Having abandoned the Republican Party to campaign as an independent, his campaign contributions were drying up. But by showing up on the oil-threatened Gulf Coast day after day, he was on the news night after night, as if he had bought advertising.

“It also helped reinforce the idea that he was a leader,” McManus said. “Up to this point in his gubernatorial career, he hadn’t had those kinds of moments.”

Crist began to rise in the polls.  He was attracting Democratic voters away from Democratic Senate candidate and Miami Congressman Kendrick Meek.  McManus says the oil spill also hurt Meek's campaign when President Obama began losing popularity in Florida because of his perceived slow response to the disaster.

“It has some major consequences for candidates like Kendrick Meek,” she said, “who would love to bring Obama into the state but because of the situation are having second thoughts about bringing Obama into the state to campaign for Democrats.”

Political scientist Terri Fine of the University of Central Florida says politicians, from Crist to Obama, have learned an important lesson from the public response to the oil spill.

“It’s all about responsiveness,” she said. “Citizens are looking to see who is responding, how well they are responding and whether the responses are adequate and appropriate.”

Earlier this month, Crist found another way to respond.  He called state lawmakers back to Tallahassee and asked them to put a constitutional amendment on the November ballot that would ban offshore drilling.

“I just don’t think I would be doing my duty as your governor if I didn’t call this session and at least try,” Crist said at the time.

Republicans accused the governor or grandstanding, refused to pass the amendment and adjourned the special session in less than an hour.

100 days into the oil spill, Crist remains the front runner in the Senate race, leading Republican Marco Rubio, who favors an expansion of well-regulated offshore oil drilling.  He’s also polling well ahead of Kendrick Meek and Meek's Democratic primary opponent, Jeff Greene.

 

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