New Poll: Florida May Buck National Voting Trend and Stick with 'Insiders'
Wednesday, August 18, 2010
By: Nicole Creston

August 18, 2010 -- Florida Attorney General Bill McCollum has suddenly surged in popularity, according to a new Quinnipiac University survey. He now leads political newcomer Rick Scott in the GOP gubernatorial primary poll. In the state's Democratic primary race for U.S. Senate, Miami Congressman Kendrick Meek is now beating billionaire Jeff Greene by seven percentage points. That's quite a change from three weeks ago, when Quinnipiac's numbers showed both McCollum and Meek losing to their "political outsider" opponents.

So, what happened? Analysts say it appears each party’s “establishment” has come to the rescue, and Florida voters have responded. This means Florida's bucking the national trend that some experts say is sweeping "political outsiders" into office.

Peter Brown conducts the Quinnipiac survey. He said two things have helped both McCollum and Meek pull ahead in the final week. First, both launched negative ads about their opponents’ business dealings. Second, established members of both parties have embraced the candidates, former Governor Jeb Bush for McCollum, former President Bill Clinton for Meek.

“Clearly it is both, and they work together,” says Brown. He points to the McCollum/Scott race as an example of how negative ads and big-name party support have affected both races. “What the negative attacks have done is raised questions about Scott in the mind of Republican voters. And, the people they really respect say he’s a bad-…he’s not our guy.”

Brown emphasizes, though, that the candidates are courting a volatile electorate. None of the candidates in these two races have reached the magic number of 50 percent support from respondents.  That’s the number that experts say indicates “strong” support for a candidate. So, Brown says, there’s still plenty of time for any candidate to experience a last-minute surge.