Economist Projects Growth for Florida and Tourism
Monday, May 5, 2014
By: Amy Kiley

May 5, 2014 | WMFE, Orlando--The most recent data show the U.S. and Florida unemployment rates are tied. That's after a national decrease and state increase, but a local expert says it's actually a good thing for Florida.

The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the national unemployment rate fell from 6.7 to 6.3 percent between March and April.  Florida’s numbers for last month aren’t yet available, but the rate here rose .01 percent in March. 

Projection for Florida’s Economy

Dr. Sean Snaith is director of the University of Central Florida’s Institute for Economic Competitiveness.  He says the numbers actually indicate a national decline in labor force participation. 

His forecast is optimistic for when Florida’s April numbers come out.  “If we’re seeing a pickup in hiring nationally, and Florida has been outpacing the nation in terms of its hiring, I would expect another good report from Florida,” he says.  “But, month to month variation, it can be kind of volatile.”

Snaith says, even if Florida’s unemployment rate rises above the national average, it could be a good thing.  He says it might mean more people in the state are looking for work as job opportunities increase.

Central Florida Tourism Outlook

Snaith predicts growth will continue for Central Florida’s tourism sector – but not as quickly as it has been.

The data from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics show an 8.7 percent decline in “amusements, gambling and recreation” between March and April.  That’s after previous months of improvement. 

Snaith says the numbers show many people who waited for economic improvement to take vacations have now taken them.  “Leisure and hospitality, really, was a leading sector when we were first coming out of recession, but I think some of that momentum and most of that bent-up demand that we saw has been vented. And so, you know, I think we’re forecasting growth in that sector to drift back a little bit in the pack,” he says.

The national report shows a 32.6 percent increase in food services and drinking places between March and April.  Snaith says that indicates people are eating out more as the economy improves.